Cobo Stable Weekly NO.9: Forget TVL. Stablecoin Growth Is Coming from the Gray Zone
The real stablecoin adoption is happening where you can't see it.
Global payments are undergoing a revolution, and stablecoins are at the heart of this transformation. They're not just reshaping how money moves across borders—they're completely redefining what payments can be. Cobo stands at the cutting edge of this shift, building the full-stack infrastructure that powers next-gen stablecoin solutions: from secure wallet tech to risk control and compliance and yield-generating options that actually make your money work.
Go with Cobo, and you can zero in on building cool stuff and growing your user base, while surfing the stablecoin revolution without the infrastructure headaches.
Stablecoin payments are being rebuilt from the ground up. Three forces are driving this: Coinbase and other major platforms consolidating the industry, AI agents taking over payment interfaces, and stablecoin issuance becoming commoditized. Together, they're pushing the real action toward distribution and actual usage.
This week we look at how these trends are redefining what stablecoins can do, where the money is, and what infrastructure actually matters.
Market Overview and Growth Highlights
Stablecoin Total Market Cap Reaches $247.252B
The total stablecoin market capitalization has reached $247.252 billion, reflecting a week-over-week growth of $1.82 billion. In terms of market share, USDT continues to dominate with a 62.12% share, followed by USDC, which holds the second position with a market cap of $60.793 billion (24.59% share).
Growth Highlights
Top 3 Fastest-Growing Stablecoins (Weekly):
First Digital USD(FDUSD) :
Growth: $105M (+8.32%)Ethena USDe (USDe):
Growth: $195.64M (+3.89%)OpenDollar USDO(USDO):
Growth:$7.4M(+3.36%)
Blockchain Network Distribution
Top 3 Networks by Stablecoin Market Cap:
Ethereum: $122.61B
Tron: $76.02B
Solana: $11.5B
Top 3 Fastest-Growing Networks (Weekly):
Arbitrum: Growth: +21.4% (USDC dominance:56.32%)
Hyperliquid L1: Growth: +11.42% (USDC dominance: 97.38%)
Flare: Growth: +9.99% (USDT dominance:62.54%)
Data Source: defillama
🎯Coinbase's Amazon Ambition: The Crypto Conglomerate Takes Shape
Coinbase isn't content being just an exchange—it wants to own the entire crypto financial stack. CEO Brian Armstrong recently revealed the company is evaluating acquisitions, with rumored targets including Circle, Securitize, Chainalysis, and Alchemy.
The most significant prize is Circle. Coinbase already controls 23% of USDC supply and earns 15% of quarterly revenue from the stablecoin, but currently splits external USDC earnings 50-50 with Circle. Full ownership would eliminate this revenue sharing while deepening ecosystem integration. However, Circle's decision to pursue an independent IPO has complicated these plans.
Each rumored target serves a clear purpose: Securitize for asset tokenization, Chainalysis for compliance infrastructure, Alchemy for developer tools. Together, they form Coinbase's "Web3 Amazon" vision—a vertically integrated empire spanning trading, stablecoins, and infrastructure services.
The crypto industry is consolidating, and Coinbase is positioning itself to control key entry points before competitors do. The question isn't whether this integration will happen, but whether Coinbase can execute it fast enough.
🎯AI Agents as the New Payment Interface: What PSPs Must Know
AI agents are evolving from tech buzzwords into the starting point of user behavior, forcing a structural shift across the payments industry.
The signals are clear. In November 2024, Stripe launched agent-specific payment interfaces supporting virtual card transactions. April 2025 saw Visa unveil "Visa Intelligent Commerce" for trusted agent transactions, while Alipay partnered with ModelScope to enable natural language payment calls. Mastercard followed with "Agent Pay," and PayPal introduced Financial OS—a native API system for AI at Dev Days.
The message is unmistakable: the subject of payments is shifting from users to agents.
From Clicks to System Calls
Traditional payment flows center on human actions—users click checkout, PSPs connect merchants to payment pages and funding rails. Agent-driven transactions rewrite this entirely. Agents don't click buttons; they make API calls. Transactions become parameter-driven, bypassing interactive interfaces and rendering checkout pages obsolete.
This change diminishes PSP visibility at the user front-end while amplifying their role in underlying systems. More critically, agents aren't just "user proxies"—they're controlling traffic sources. Future payment requests may originate not from merchant-side calls, but from unified orchestration by Google, Anthropic, or OpenAI. These platforms are becoming the new B2B merchants, reshaping PSP customer logic entirely.
API-First Infrastructure as Core Competency
PSP priorities shift from page integration and UI optimization to delivering stable, standardized, orchestrable API capabilities. Payments, identity, risk management, data processing, compliance—every module must be agent-callable, forming an "executable payment system."
AI doesn't care about UX. It cares about response times, semantic clarity, and documentation quality. Developer experience, system reliability, and modular architecture will directly determine PSP market position in agent scenarios.
Risk and compliance logic must evolve accordingly. Traditional fraud detection relies on user behavior trails, but agent transactions lack obvious human operation patterns. PSPs must identify system behavior legitimacy and stability—requiring risk models closer to API security frameworks, detecting anomalies in call frequency, parameter changes, and contextual patterns.
Stripe already pioneers this approach, integrating large models into payment risk systems. Using Transformer architecture, they've boosted fraud detection from 59% to 97%. For compliance, KYC and AML shift from static account-level reviews to dynamic assessment of call chains and transaction pathways.
Stablecoins: The Agent Payment Rails
Payment rail selection logic is changing fundamentally. Low cost, real-time settlement, and programmability become primary considerations. Stablecoins like USDC and PYUSD offer natural advantages across these dimensions, making them ideal rails for autonomous agent payments.
For PSPs, stablecoin integration isn't an optional "additional payment method"—it's basic table stakes for accessing agent commercial flows. Beyond supporting on-chain settlement, PSPs must provide automated exchange rate calculations, on-chain compliance verification, transaction path optimization, and end-to-end automation without human intervention. Stablecoins' native programmability also enables contract-based "autopay" functionality, opening space for future agent-to-application interactions.
The New Infrastructure Play
In the AI agent era, PSPs no longer build payment processes for humans. They provide stable, trusted, easily integrated "Payment Infrastructure as a Service" for agents, stablecoin rails, and global automated transaction networks. The companies that recognize this shift earliest will define the next decade of payments infrastructure.
🎯Stablecoins: The Battle Has Moved to Distribution
The strategic center of gravity in stablecoins is shifting from issuance to distribution.
According to M0 Foundation and Artemis research, stablecoin issuance is becoming commoditized. As trust and compliance barriers lower, new players can replicate existing models. The competition is no longer about "issuing" stablecoins—it's about controlling distribution channels and circulation networks.
Wallets, payment apps, and embedded finance platforms are becoming the new power centers. They control user touchpoints, decide which stablecoins get used, and build revenue models through spreads and service fees.
On-chain data reveals something striking: nearly 20,000 unidentified large wallets (each holding over $1M) collectively hold about $76 billion in stablecoins—32% of total supply. These aren't known exchange or DeFi protocol addresses. We call this the "gray space."
This gray space likely represents diverse, real economic activity: B2B cross-border settlements, corporate treasury reserves, emerging market wealth storage, gaming ecosystem flows, and other institutional capital movements we haven't categorized yet.
This suggests stablecoins' primary use cases and real drivers have already moved beyond traditional metrics. Instead of watching CEX volumes or DeFi TVL, we should track these "silent whales"—their activity reveals how stablecoins are actually penetrating the real economy.
The next competition wave centers on distribution. Control over user entry points, embedded scenarios, and circulation paths will determine stablecoins' actual growth and infrastructure status. For infrastructure builders, the key is creating payment stacks that support diverse distribution, fit real scenarios, and recognize gray space demand.
Big Picture
🔮 A US stablecoin regulation bill advancing through Congress is boosting crypto optimism and promising a legal framework for issuers, potentially shaking up a market dominated by Tether and Circle by attracting new players like Bank of America and tech firms. This anticipated legislation is pivotal for transforming stablecoins from mere trading or illicit finance tools into practical, everyday payment options, free from negative associations. Ultimately, such regulatory clarity is expected to draw in more financial heavyweights, accelerating stablecoins' evolution into essential payment infrastructure and marking a crucial step for crypto's mainstream financial integration.
🔮 Top US banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America are reportedly exploring a joint, bank-led stablecoin built on existing payment rails, emphasizing compliance and full fiat-backing, though awaiting clear US legislation. This move signals crypto's potential shift from niche innovation to mainstream financial infrastructure, with banks poised to drive stablecoins into everyday payments and B2B settlements, well beyond current trading uses. Such a development would significantly reshape the payments landscape and mark blockchain's broader acceptance within the regulated traditional financial system.
New Launches
👀Hyperdrive, Hyperliquid's dedicated stablecoin lending market, has officially launched, aiming to boost liquidity for on-chain assets. The platform allows users to collateralize idle BTC, ETH, SOL, and HYPE to borrow stablecoins like USDe or USDT0. Leveraging Hyperliquid pre-compiles and deep HyperEVM integration, Hyperdrive offers efficient liquidity, enhanced borrowing potential for HL traders, new utility for HYPE holders via a $HYPED LST, and enables HLP providers to unlock or leverage their positions.
👀Cove protocol just hit mainnet, rolling out its coveUSD stablecoin and a fresh approach to automated, risk-adjusted DeFi yields on Ethereum, with $3 million in pre-seed funding led by Electric Capital. Helmed by ex-Saddle Finance CEO Sunil Srivatsa, Cove uses a Python bot powered by Gauntlet's risk smarts for daily on-chain strategy rebalancing; it's non-custodial and thrice-audited, though US users are initially geo-blocked. The big idea here is to push DeFi beyond just automated market making towards broader "automated investing," offering a simpler, one-click path to secure yields. Keep an eye out: they might even cook up a native mobile app to seamlessly bridge Apple Pay to coveUSD yields, a move that could seriously lower the DeFi entry barrier for everyday folks and tilt stablecoin use more towards investment.
👀 Elon Musk confirmed X Money, the X platform's payment service, is gearing up for a "very limited beta test," stressing extreme caution with user funds. Essentially a digital wallet allowing Visa top-ups for Venmo-like transactions, X has already secured money transmitter licenses in 41 states, signaling a serious, regulated approach. Notably, despite Musk's previous enthusiasm for Dogecoin, this announcement made no mention of crypto support. This move underscores a pragmatic path through traditional finance for mainstream payments—even from crypto proponents—further blending Big Tech with financial services and potentially paving a compliant runway for future crypto integration.
👀Thesis, the blockchain studio backed by Pantera Capital and Hack VC, has officially launched the mainnet for Mezo, its Bitcoin Layer 2 network. Mezo introduces MUSD, a native stablecoin minted by users collateralizing their Bitcoin, aiming to foster a BTC-driven circular economy and position itself as a "Bitcoin financial center." This launch is a significant step in expanding Bitcoin's DeFi capabilities, filling a void for an endogenous stablecoin and allowing users to access stablecoin liquidity while maintaining BTC exposure. Ultimately, initiatives like Mezo could be pivotal in transforming Bitcoin from primarily a store-of-value asset into a more versatile financial tool.
Market Adoption
🌱 Hardware wallet giant Ledger is set to launch its "Crypto Life" Visa card in the US (excluding NY & VT) on June 30, 2025, with crypto payment firm Baanx powering the backend. The card will offer users 1% cashback in Bitcoin (BTC) or USDC and, notably, the ability to have their wages directly deposited into the on-chain card account. This move by a leading self-custody player into the payments arena signifies a deeper meshing of crypto with traditional finance, aiming to bridge the gap between digital asset holdings and everyday spending. That direct deposit feature, in particular, could subtly nudge more US consumers towards converting part of their income into crypto, potentially boosting mainstream adoption.
🌱 The global stablecoin supply just hit a fresh all-time high of $247 billion, swelling by a cool $3.54 billion in the past seven days alone. This caps a staggering 23.5-fold boom over the last five years, underscoring the runaway global appetite for digital dollars. This persistent growth, even amidst evolving regulations, signals robust demand for stablecoins as foundational crypto infrastructure and hints at increasing market liquidity, potentially setting the stage for a new flurry of activity. Many see this trend, which is already outpacing traditional monetary expansion, as digital dollars fundamentally redrawing global value transfer networks—a shift poised to accelerate as institutional money flows in and regulatory skies clear.
Capital Moves
💰 Conduit, a Boston-based payments firm, has secured $36 million in Series A funding, co-led by Dragonfly and Altos Ventures, to scale its stablecoin-based global payments network as a SWIFT alternative. Their platform merges crypto with traditional financial rails to offer real-time payments, aiming to slash settlement times and costs. This investment highlights the significant market demand for alternatives to legacy systems and underscores stablecoins' competitive edge in solving cross-border payment friction. It’s another clear signal that enterprise payment systems are increasingly eyeing a move from closed banking networks to open blockchains, with stablecoins evolving from trading tools into foundational infrastructure for real-world business applications.
💰 USDC issuer Circle has officially filed to go public on the NYSE under the ticker "CRCL," with shares priced between $24-$26, aiming to raise nearly $250 million for the company, while existing shareholders will also sell a portion of their holdings. Cathie Wood's ARK Invest is showing major confidence, signaling intent to snap up $150 million in shares, a bullish sign for stablecoin infrastructure especially as U.S. stablecoin legislation appears imminent. After a previous SPAC attempt didn't pan out and recent talks of potential acquisition by giants like Coinbase or Ripple, Circle's move to IPO independently, with major banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs as underwriters, marks a significant step in crypto's integration with traditional finance. This could also heat up competition and trigger a reshuffle in the stablecoin sector.
💰 Arbitrum just saw a huge $145 million stablecoin injection in 24 hours, all flowing from Binance, signaling a major confidence boost from institutions towards Ethereum Layer 2s. This cash flood highlights L2s as new liquidity hubs and strongly suggests Arbitrum is gearing up for more DeFi action, cementing its top-tier Ethereum scaling status.
Regulation & Compliance
🏛️ The UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is advancing its crypto oversight by seeking further market input on upcoming regulations for stablecoins and crypto custody services. These proposed rules are designed to ensure stablecoins maintain their value and to slash the risk of issuers or custodians going bust, with a sharp focus on consumer protection and overall market stability through robust reserve and risk management requirements. This consultation will directly shape the UK's detailed framework, impacting any crypto firms looking to operate there. The FCA's move mirrors a global push to tackle stablecoin systemic risks and could influence future international standards for digital assets.
🏛️ With European exchanges delisting USDT ahead of MiCA regulations, Tether-backed startups StablR and Oobit are introducing MiCA-compliant euro and dollar stablecoins (EURR and USDR). Payment app Oobit will integrate these, offering a 5% cashback to EU users, marking a strategic move by Tether to maintain European influence after its EURT faced compliance exits and USDT now faces similar pressures. This highlights MiCA's role in reshaping the continent's stablecoin market, favoring compliant alternatives like EURS and EURC, and illustrates Tether's tactic of leveraging investments in a fragmenting regulatory landscape.
🏛️ At Bitcoin 2025, US VP J.D. Vance announced the Trump administration is prioritizing a crypto market structure bill to create clear, innovation-friendly regulations. This move, following the desired passage of the GENIUS Act for stablecoins and the confirmed end of "Operation Chokepoint 2.0," aims to fully integrate crypto into the US economy and secure lasting supportive policies. Vance's shout-out to backers like Gemini and Coinbase highlights crypto's growing political influence. Notably, he also urged the Bitcoin community to engage with AI, hinting at government interest in the convergence of these technologies.
🏛️ Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis candidly shared at the Bitcoin 2025 conference that pushing the GENIUS stablecoin bill through the Senate is proving "extremely difficult," more so than she expected, even though it recently cleared a key 60-vote procedural hurdle. Despite being hailed as potentially the Senate Banking Committee's first passed legislation in eight years and enjoying significant bipartisan backing, the bill is reportedly facing procedural delay tactics from crypto critics like Senator Elizabeth Warren. Lummis highlighted a deeper issue—the Senate's rusty "legislative muscle memory"—which could complicate future crypto rule-making, contrasting with the House's swifter action on bills like FIT21. Nevertheless, getting this stablecoin legislation across the finish line is viewed as a critical first step that could pave the way for broader crypto market structure laws in the U.S.
🏛️ AI model hub Civitai has pivoted to crypto (like USDC on Base for just a $1 fee) for its "Buzz" currency purchases after credit card processors dropped them due to AI-generated adult content, all while the platform also ramps up content moderation to comply with new regulations. This move highlights a growing trend where traditional finance restrictions are pushing platforms in controversial sectors towards crypto, positioning it as a vital financial lifeline and a practical alternative payment rail.